LONDON"Is it possible to have a dominant Big 4, and a void at the top of the game? That's what it feels like as the men head to Wimbledon this year. Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, and Roger Federer are seeded No. 1 through No. 4, have collectively won virtually every Grand Slam played over the last decade, and seem to be in at least passable physical condition. But would you put your money on any one of them individually to win the tournament?
Djokovic is coming off a tough defeat in Paris, and has lost his last five Grand Slam finals outside of Melbourne. Nadal hasn't been past the second round at Wimbledon since 2011. Murray has a new coach and hasn't reached a final, let alone won a tournament, all season. And Roger Federer is going to be 33 in a little more than a month. In a way, a win by any of them individually would be a surprise.
Here's a look at the roads that the Big 4 will take to get to that title, and which blades of grass in the draw might trip them up along the way.
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Novak Djokovic, finalist here in 2013 and semifinalist in 2012, has been bumped from No. 2 to No. 1 seed by Wimbledon's grass-court formula. Which is nice for him, even though the only practical benefit is that he doesn't have to look all the way down to the bottom of the draw to see his name.
Djokovic, despite a recurrence of his recent wrist pain, should like what he sees in his draw. He usually does; the 2011 Wimbledon champion has been to the semis or better of every Grand Slam but one since 2010. He starts against Andrey Golubev, and could play his practice partner from yesterday, Radek Stepanek, in the second round. Stepanek beat Andy Murray last week in Queen's, but hasn't beaten Djokovic since 2006.
Djokovic's record is almost as good against the second seed in this quarter, Tomas Berdych; though one of the Czech's rare wins over him did come in the Wimbledon semis in 2010. But Berdych can't count on a rematch with Nole quite yet; he might have to play the man who thrashed him in Paris and eliminated him from Wimbledon two years ago, Ernests Gulbis, in the fourth round. Whether Gulbis himself can last that long is another story. The French Open semifinalist and newest member of the Top 10 doesn't have a history of dealing well with success. That trend has continued this month: Gulbis lost early in Queen's, and has already gambled away most of his Paris prize money.
Also here: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Frenchman, who could play Djokovic in the round of 16, has had a rough year, but he typically comes to life at Wimbledon.
Coaches Note: If Boris Becker is ever going to be useful to Djokovic, it should be here, at the place he once called "My House."
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How will Andy Murray react to playing his first Wimbledon as defending champion? He would likely tell you, "I have no idea. I've never done it before." What we do know is that his record at his home Slam has been consistently excellent, and his draw to the semis is a good one. Murray will open the tournament on Centre Court against David Goffin. The other top seed in his section is Fabio Fognini, never known to be a force on grass. And the second best player in this quarter, David Ferrer, had to fly home this week to a see his doctor about a stomach problem. The Wimbledon seeding process, which moved Murray from No. 5 safely up to No. 3, obviously did its job.
One-hand tied behind their backs: Grigor Dimitrov and Dominic Thiem, single-handed specialists, could meet in the second round. They're in Ferrer's half.
First-round match to watch: Dimitrov vs. Ryan Harrison, who qualified. They've gone different ways as pros, but both have shown their potential here in the past.
Dangerous for a day: Dustin Brown. The crowd-pleasing German starts against Marcos Baghdatis.
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This, you would have to think, is the one Roger Federer has been waiting for. No male player since Ken Rosewall has gone all the way at a Grand Slam after age 32, and Federer has won Wimbledon more than any other event in his career. If not now, when?
Federer's draw should give him a chance. He'll start against fellow over-30 Paolo Lorenzi; the second seed in his half is the slumping Jerzy Janowicz; and the second seed in this section is the also-slumping Stan Wawrinka. Federer's biggest threat could come in the second round from Julien Benneteau, who was two points from beating him here in 2012.
How about Stan, once also known as the Man, and still ranked No. 3 in the world? The prospects look bleak. He lost in the first round in Paris, and hasn't won a match at the All England Club since 2011"that includes two first-round losses at Wimbledon and one at the Olympics. No wonder he was bumped down to fifth seed this time.
Also here: Feliciano Lopez, finalist in Queen's and grass-court lover.
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He's No. 1 in the world, but it would be easy to write off Rafael Nadal right now. Each of the last two years, after winning the French Open, he's lost early at Wimbledon, and he didn't look much better in his only match in Halle last week, a quick defeat to Dustin Brown. Plus, Rafa has what qualifies as a fairly difficult draw in the era of 32 seeds. He'll start against Martin Klizan, a quality left-hander, and after that he could get the man who stunned him here two years ago, Lukas Rosol. Ivo Karlovic, no one's idea of a fun day on the courts, may still be lurking in the third round.
But this is Nadal, a two-time Wimbledon champion, and he has sounded determined to right the grass ship this year. Plus, the man he's supposed to meet in the quarters, Milos Raonic, while theoretically dangerous, has yet to find his way on grass.
Also here: Kei Nishikori. He's in Raonic's half.
First-round match to watch: Nadal vs. Klizan
Second-round match to watch: Nadal vs. Rosol
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| Silvia Soler-Espinosa (ESP) | |||||||
| Olga Govortsova (BLR) | |||||||
| Daniela Hantuchova (SVK) | |||||||
| Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) [13] | |||||||
| Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [8] | |||||||
| Mirjana Lucic-Baroni (CRO) | |||||||
| Johanna Larsson (SWE) | |||||||
| Bojana Jovanovski (SRB) | |||||||
| Monica Niculescu (ROU) | |||||||
| Alison Van Uytvanck (BEL) | |||||||
| Aleksandra Wozniak (CAN) | |||||||
| Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) [10] | |||||||
| Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) [28] | |||||||
| M.Larcher De Brito (POR) | |||||||
| Stefanie Voegele (SUI) | |||||||
| Jarmila Gajdosova (AUS) | |||||||
LONDON"For the last two years, the standard question before every women's Grand Slam has been a simple one: Can anyone beat Serena Williams? That's still a question worth asking, of course, but there's more to the WTA at the majors these days, when you consider Serena's recent early losses at the Slams"she's gone out before the quarters in three of the last four"and the rise of a promising youth brigade in 2014.
All of which, to the neutral tennis fan, should be good news: That are a lot of possibilities in this draw; here's a look at a few of them.
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Serena fans looking for rays of hope only have to look back at her last two French-Wimbledon transitions to find them. In 2012, she was stunned early in Paris by Virginie Razzano, before coming back to win two events at the All England Club, Wimbledon and the Olympics. Last year she won the French, and was ousted in the fourth round on Centre Court by Sabine Lisicki. There's a sense that, like a lot of champions, Serena is at her best when she has something to prove. She'll begin trying to prove it against Anna Tatishvili in her opener. More interesting could be a third-round match-up with Alize Cornet; the Frenchwoman upset Serena in Dubai in February.
To see how unbeatable Serena can be when she's motivated, you need look no further than the woman at other end of this bracket. Maria Sharapova, the fifth seed and French Open champion, has lost to Williams 15 straight times. And for the second straight Slam, the two are slated to meet in the quarterfinals"Maria moved her ranking higher with her win in Paris, but not quite high enough. Just like Serena, the last time Sharapova won at Roland Garros she was knocked out in the fourth round at Wimbledon by Sabine Lisicki. This time Maria will start against Great Britain's Samantha Murray. Angelique Kerber, a finalist this week in Eastbourne, is her possible fourth-round opponent.
Also here: Eugenie Bouchard and Andrea Petkovic, two breakout semifinalists from the French Open. Both are in Serena's half, and both of their flat-hitting games should translate well to grass.
Sleeper: Camila Giorgi. If all goes right for the Macerata Mauler, which is admittedly difficult to imagine, she'll play Sharapova, whom she beat at Indian Wells, in the third round.
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Now we can see how much things have changed for Simona Halep in the last 12 months. In 2013, she came here unseeded and lost in the second round to Li Na. In 2014, as the No. 3 seed, she heads up her own quarter of the draw.
What Halep can do with it is anyone's guess. The French Open finalist has the movement and the shot-making for grass, but she retired from her tune-up in the Netherlands this week with shoulder soreness. Whatever her condition, Halep, who has never been out of the second round at Wimbledon, has what appears to be a smooth road to the quarterfinals. She starts against Brazil's Teliana Pereira, and the highest seed in her half is Carla Suarez Navarro.
The other side of this section has a Serbian flavor: Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic are the two top seeds. Jankovic is coming off a bad loss to Madison Keys, while Ivanovic won her grass-court warm-up last week in Birmingham without dropping a set. Each faces some danger in their openers, Jankovic from Kaia Kanepi, Ivanovic from Francesca Schiavone.
Tougher for Ivanovic could be a second-rounder against former Wimbledon semifinalist Jie Zheng, who beat her here in 2008. Even tougher than that is a possible third-rounder with Sabine Lisicki, last year's runner-up here. Ivanovic won their only meeting, on clay, in Stuttgart this year, but Lisicki specializes in Wimbledon. One piece of good news for Ana: Lucie Safarova is nowhere near her.
Teen dreamers: Belinda Bencic, Vicky Duval, Donna Vekic, Taylor Townsend, and Madison Keys are all in this section. Keys looks to be the most dangerous at the moment.
First-round match to watch: Madison Keys vs. Monica Puig
Sleeper: Sabine Lisicki. In the absence of last year's champion, Marion Bartoli, the woman Bartoli beat in the final will open the women's draw on Centre Court on Tuesday. Lisicki's last memory there is a bad one, but she loves this place nonetheless.
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It wouldn't be surprising if Agnieszka Radwanska came back to Wimbledon with mixed feelings. Each of the last two years, she's found herself within reach of the title, and each time she has fallen heartbreakingly short. In 2014, judging by her draw, she could get another crack at her first major"it's amazing what getting that No. 4 seed can do for your prospects, isn't it?
Radwanska will start against Andrea Mitu; the highest seed in her half is grass-nonspecialist Sara Errani; and the highest seed in her quarter is Victoria Azarenka, who has played one match in three months. You might think that Aga's form"she lost in the first round this week in Eastbourne and went out early in Paris"would hurt her, but she lost in the first round in Eastbourne in each of the last two years, and ended up in the final and the semis at Wimbledon. Grass is best for her reactive, finesse game, because it gives her counter-punches a little more pop.
First-round match to watch: Coco Vandeweghe vs. Garbine Muguruza. The American beat the Spaniard up-and-comer this week in 's-Hertogenbosch on her way to the final.
Also here: Azarenka and Dominika Cibulkova. It has been a frustrating couple of months for both of them, but they're the top two seeds in the upper half of this section, so a deep run is possible.
Sleepers:
Caroline Garcia: So far she hasn't followed up on her Fed Cup heroics from earlier in the year, but Garcia has the athleticism for grass. She starts against Errani.
Tsvetana Pironkova: Wimbledon is her playground; this time she opens against Varvara Lepchenko.
Svetlana Kuznetsova: She hasn't done much here, or anywhere, in recent years, but Kuzzie reached the quarters in Paris. She might play Aga in the third round.
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We conclude in the zone of unpredictability: The top two seeds here are Li Na and Petra Kvitova, which is both a daunting and a hopeful prospect for the other women in this quarter. You never know what you're going to get from either player, but it could be very good.
Li is especially questionable at the moment. After an unprecedented run of consistency, the Aussie Open champ reverted to form and lost in the first round in Paris. How much will that shake her confidence at Wimbledon? She was a quarterfinalist here last year, and will open this time against Paula Kania of Poland. As for Kvitova, the 2011 champion will start against her countrywoman, Andrea Hlavackova.
Also here:
Flavia Pennetta: The 12th seed, who lost in Eastbourne to Heather Watson, will open against Jana Cepelova.
Sloane Stephens: Matching her quarterfinal appearance from 2013 will take some work; she'll start her campaign against Maria Kirilenko. Sloane does know how to beat players ranked below her.
Sleepers:
Caroline Wozniacki: The 16th seed has had a nice run in Eastbourne, and her draw looks plausible through the fourth round.
Venus Williams: You can never sleep on a five-time champ, and she has beaten her potential third-round opponent, Petra Kvitova, the last two times they've played.
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Men's Champion: Roger Federer It is not a nostalgia-driven pick: Federer has moved fluidly in reaching five finals this year, he's healthy, and should be confident coming off his 14th career grass-court title in Halle. Rafa may be an insurmountable obstacle, but the seven-time champion matches up with anyone else on grass.
Women's Champion: Serena Williams The last time Serena suffered an early exit in Paris, she blasted back to win Wimbledon. Though she hasn't been as imposing this season, Williams has raised the Rosewater Dish three of the last five years, knows how to close, and remains the class of the field.
Men's Dark Horse: Grigor Dimitrov He's been a chronic underachiever at SW19, but in winning his third title of the year at Queen's Club, Dimitrov showed the serve, athleticism, and all-court skills that can carry him deep at Wimbledon if he holds his nerve.
Women's Dark Horse: Madison Keys Fresh off her first career title at Eastbourne, the 19-year-old's explosiveness plays well on grass. Keys is still refining the rough edges, but her serve and forehand are two of the biggest weapons in the game. If she serves with authority, she is a threat.
Men's Champion: Novak Djokovic He's hard to beat on hard courts and is second-in-command on clay. But Djokovic is great on grass, too, having reached at least the semifinals of Wimbledon in each of the last four years. He's more than due to lift his seventh Grand Slam title.
Women's Champion: Serena Williams There might be more pressure on Serena to perform at a Slam than ever, considering her early exits in Melbourne and Paris. But maybe that's just the tonic she needs. Though a loss wouldn't shock"it happened in the fourth round last year"it's hard to imagine Williams not winning a major through Wimbledon this year.
Men's Dark Horse: Fernando Verdasco After drifting outside the Top 50 in 2013, Verdasco has moved back into the Top 25, and thanks to his grass-court credentials is seeded No. 18. His lefty serve is an asset on grass, and if he didn't lose a certain two-set lead last year, Fred Perry might still be a talking point at this year's Championships.
Women's Dark Horse: Sabine Lisicki We saw what pressure did to Lisicki in last year's final, so even her first match"on Centre Court, due to Marion Bartoli's retirement"will be a test. But if she can get past that, no one in her quarter, including Simona Halep, looks capable of toppling her on turf. She's significantly under seeded at No. 19.
Men's Champion: Rafael Nadal If we know one thing about Nadal, it's that he's often at his best when he's trying to recapture or prove something. He's had hard luck at Wimbledon for a number of years, but he's much too good a grass-court player not to win there again.
Women's Champion: Maria Sharapova In this wide-open year, it feels like the French Open champion has karma working for her. In addition, Serena, who holds a remarkable 16-2 head-to-head advantage over Sharapova, has been struggling. Can you say, "face saver?"
Men's Dark Horse: Grigor Dimitrov The Bulgarian has climbed all the way to No. 13 in the rankings, and he's got all the requisite tools for success in today's physical, hit-the-crap-out-of-the-ball environment. His long awaited breakthrough is upon us"or, it better be, given the hype that has surrounded Dimitrov.
Women's Dark Horse: Eugenie Bouchard Did anyone else notice that, just like flavor-of-the-month Dimitrov, Bouchard is ranked no. 13? A semifinalist at the French Open, Bouchard is just 20"three years younger than Dimitrov. But she seems a decade more mature as a competitor, which will help her punch through as the next big WTA star.
Men's Champion: Rafael Nadal It would be easy to write off Rafa after his early losses here the last two years, and his fairly tough draw. But he says he's determined to right the grass ship this time, and that his knees feel much better. If he gets on a roll, who is going to stop him?
Women's Champion: Serena Williams After going out before the quarters in three of the last four majors, she can't be called the overwhelming favorite this time. But Serena, an early loser in Paris, is at her best when she has something to prove.
Men's Dark Horse: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga He's had a bad year, and his ranking is down from No. 5 to No. 17, but Jo is one of the few who owns wins over each of the Big 4, and he tends to get his big game into gear at Wimbledon.
Women's Dark Horse: Venus Williams Can a five-time champion be a dark horse? She can when she's 33 years old and ranked No. 30. But Venus, like Tsonga, draws life from a surface that's alive, and she's very nearly beaten the top seed near her in the draw, Petra Kvitova, the last two times they've played.
NOTE: All dark-horse picks must be seeded outside the Top 10.
Edited by awesomegurti - 9 years ago
